TaxesFiscal estimate
The question: Does it raise tax rates or affect TABOR refunds?
It does not raise taxes or increase prices at the register, but in years above the TABOR limit, TABOR refunds would be smaller.
It does not raise the sales-tax rate or the amount of tax collected on sporting goods. But it can reduce TABOR refunds. Below the TABOR limit, the tradeoff is less money available for other state budget priorities instead.
Our explanation · Sources checked October 6, 2026
The evidence
2 excerpts“The measure applies to most sporting goods categories and does not change the price of sporting goods or the amount of tax collected.”
Page 65, scope and tax treatment
Colorado Legislative Council Staff
2026 Blue Book: Proposition 137“In years where state revenue exceeds the limit, the measure reduces TABOR refunds by the amount of sporting goods sales tax revenue the state is allowed to keep.”
Page 66, TABOR refund explanation
Colorado Legislative Council Staff
2026 Blue Book: Proposition 137How to read this
The Blue Book forecasts a $175.0 million reduction in refunds for tax year 2027. It projects a six-tier sales-tax refund impact of $26–$83 per single filer or $52–$166 per joint filer, depending on income. Those figures use the June 2026 forecast, not a guaranteed household result.
What to keep in mind
“No tax-rate increase” does not mean “no taxpayer or budget tradeoff.” The actual effect depends on revenue relative to the TABOR limit, the refund mechanism, and future forecasts. Tax year 2028 refunds are outside the cited forecast window.